How this affects Arctic sea ice this summer is unknown. I doubt it affects much, we are still on some of the lowest volumes with fresh ice not having expelled as much salt as usual. I think the first thing to expect of this melting season is an early melt-out of the Bering, and possibly record early inroads into the Chukchi. Well I will certainly be looking at the number of high's that grace the basin this year esp. If low solar does lead to impacts in the propensity of HP's over the basin then maybe that would go some way to explaining why the record breaking years of 07', , and were positioned where they were!
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This year we do not have that slow melting snow but are another year closer to solar Min. It has been pretty clear on our side of the basin this last 3 weeks though? We need to be careful to discern the difference between the cold weather where most of us live and the warm weather in the northern hemisphere. Note that the CFS v2 climate model forecasts continued ridging and warmer than normal temperatures over the Aleutians, Alaska, and the Beaufort and Chukchi seas through July. It now forecasts a stormy August in the central Arctic.
The CFS model tends to over-forecast warm anomalies so don't expect the magnitude of the warm anomalies to be accurate. Moreover, the CFS model doesn't handle ocean mixing well so don't trust it to be any good at all in areas where there might be ocean mixing. I have chosen to post the forecast mb temperatures rather than the 2m near surface temperatures because they are a reflection of atmospheric dynamics.
I don't trust the CFS model to deal with the sea ice and ocean mixing issues that strongly affect near surface temperatures. With those caveats, the CFS v2 model forecasts posted below make good sense as a continuation of the weather and ocean heat patterns that have been developing over the past 2 months. July's forecast of higher than normal pressure on the Alaskan side of the pole could melt out large volumes of sea ice on the Pacific side of the Arctic while continuing transport out of the Fram strait.
We'll see how this all plays out in September but these forecasts would put this year in contention for a record low in September. Anecdotally we already have 4" on the ground in the middle of the world's most prominent heat island directly on New York Harbor. It is March 21st, and this has not happened since This March has been unprecedented in terms of the practical WX in the NE US and I believe it is because we have temporarily reached a tipping point where dynamics favoring ice sheet expansion have now outweighed background heat, which is why NYC went from record warmest Feb to We may see freak weather actually worsen into April, with snows maintained across populated regions as the current SWE anomalies show no signs of dropping just yet.
Again, relating back to the ice, the insane situation in the mid-latitudes should pump the Arctic full of heat transported from the ocean This will not be good for humans. In good news, we may be at hemispheric SWE max? If another several years of ice decline lead to a continued increase in SWE, it isn't hard to imagine esque winters on the regular if we have already possibly regressed to the s in terms of accumulated volume and are seeing the same weather as back then Quote from: bbr on March 21, , PM. I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.
Quote from: Archimid on March 21, , PM. Forrest Gump "Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" Epitaph. I agree. Actual snow cover is extremely interesting, but updates on what it means in the long er run need to be posted elsewhere. Judah Cohen has discussed how sudden stratospheric warmings are followed by 4 to 8 weeks cold stormy weather in the Northeast U.
The Melting Season (Hardcover)
You should read his blog. We are coming to the end of the stratosphere-troposphere coupling season. I do think that the coupling is still active and that the current stratospheric PV displacement with a weakened PV center over western Siberia is related to the low heights and cold temperatures across Siberia.
Counterclockwise flow around the low height center both in the stratosphere and its reflection in the troposphere is resulting in a cold easterly flow of air out of Siberia and into Europe. Cold temperatures and the very active storm track in the Eastern US is harder to explain. There is some weak ridging in the polar stratosphere centered in and around Alaska that has a tropospheric reflection. This would favor downstream troughing across the Eastern US.
Cold and possibly snowy weather is consistent with our new study that warm PCHs overwhelmingly favor more wintry weather in the Eastern US. In addition there is a recent study by Zhang et al. This manifests in a what I would describe as a collapse in continental snow cover during April and May. Snow cover is currently relatively extensive both across North America and Eurasia with widespread cold temperatures, especially across Northern Eurasia.
It will be interesting to see how quickly the continents warm-up and how quickly snow cover recedes in the coming weeks and if possibly this spring, snow cover can buck recent trends.
One region I expect to heat up quickly regardless is the Western US but even there snow cover is extensive and maybe I will be wrong. Quote from: oren on March 21, , PM. In some way it's a little strange to see as the highest number, and it had the lowest minimum the same time. And for this year it's the lowest number. Seems the ice is acting up in Frobisher Bay an hour or two by snowmachine out of town. This is very early; it shouldn't be even much of a topic until mid to late May normally.
Offshore winds have exported ice from the region of S Baffin island into the Labrador sea. Very stormy weather combined with intense blocking highs this winter has caused extensive mixing in the Labrador sea and that's put warm salty water in contact with ice on the margins of the open water of the Labrador sea. This situation may increase the rate of melting all the way into Hudson's bay because ice is moving through the passages.
Below is today's March 21, worldview Terra visible image showing open water and very thin ice around the south side of Baffin Island. It's Baffin and Barentsz that have heralded the max. Okhotsk is about to join the festivities:. Max brothers. In eastern Massachusetts, I've seen 30CM of snow disappear in 48 hours.
Greenland's Melt Season Started Nearly Two Months Early | Climate Central
I al so know that snowfall across the northern boreal forest won't particularly reduce albedo, just slow the start of biological spring. Im not sure that extra snow on the tundra will last that much longer. Snow on the ice is the thing as that kicks up the albedo and has a better chance of persisting, and is what has helped save the ice the last few years. Will it this time? Ok, so who has a full set of actionable links to the best daily snow data sets? In fact, better than canned maps is the netCDF data archive underlying the map, if we plan to compare approaches like we do with ice thickness.
Ok, so who has a full set of actionable links to the best daily AO albedo data sets? Ok, so who has a full set of actionable links to the best daily AO melt pond data sets?
Ok, so who has a full set of actionable links to the best daily AO cloud data sets? NOAA PSD's maproom has many useful maps including outgoing longwave radiation, but I'm not someone who downloads data and processes it myself. There's a lot of ocean heat near Svalbard that will start taking a toll on sea ice later this spring. That said, I'd expect something like a gridded albedo map might slip under the Trump admin's radar and might be locate-able.
With daylight back, Worldview again moves up in the list of tools I use to watch what's going on. This area has been persistently open for most of a month, and the image I think gives us insight as to why. The filament-like melting along the ice margin speaks to a very abrupt but significant temperature differential in the water.
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This early, to see this, at this latitude I find very disturbing. I apologize for the relatively crude work.
GIF Banks Island is in the center of each frame. I leave you to draw your own conclusions about comparative ice quality. Sterks Guest. Quote from: jdallen on March 21, , PM. I am not keen on reading six months of data-free speculation on what conditions prevail in the Arctic Ocean based on home-town weather. Do we know of model and observational data sources that track daily albedo, melt pond formation none yet , snow depth, liquid and ice water paths in clouds, rates of bottom ice melting, radiative heat fluxes etc?