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Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance: Arvind Subramanian
Eclipse must be read for a refreshing and deep analysis of what may lie ahead. It is an extremely well written and thought provoking book. Defying conventional wisdom, Eclipse not just vividly imagines, but provides a plausible scenario for, the replacement of the United States by China as the world's dominant economic power. It persuasively underlines the need for Washington to get its act together. See All Customer Reviews.
Interview: Arvind Subramanian on a Dominant China | Good Reads | China, World, Asian american
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But it could exercise a negative form of dominance, either through its exchange rate policy or by buying up commodities [to corner markets]. A political shock to system. Then all bets are off. All countries must work together to negotiate and bind China to a multilateral system.
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If every country tries to make its own deal with China, no one will have any leverage. Broadly speaking, economic dominance is the ability of a state to use economic means to get other countries to do what it wants or to prevent them from forcing it to do what it does not want.
Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China’s Economic Dominance
GDP matters because it determines the overall resources that a country can muster to project power against potential rivals or otherwise have its way. Trade, and especially imports, determines how much leverage a country can get from offering or denying other countries access to its markets. And being a leading financier confers extraordinary influence over other countries that need funds, especially in times of crisis. No other gauge of dominance is as instructive as these three: the others are largely derivative military strength, for example, depends on the overall health and size of an economy in the long run , marginal currency dominance , or difficult to measure consistently across countries fiscal strength.
Meanwhile, I assume that the U.
The upshot of my analysis is that by , relative U. China will account for close to 20 percent of global GDP measured half in dollars and half in terms of real purchasing power , compared with just under 15 percent for the United States. In other words, China will not be dirt poor, as is commonly believed.
Moreover, it will generate 15 percent of world trade — twice as much as will the United States. Political Science Quarterly Volume , Issue 4.
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